Posted by Meteorologist Beau Dodson
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10:30 AM Severe Weather Outlook
Hatched means higher end severe possible.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Tornado Outlook
Wind Outlook
Hail Outlook
Outlook discussion. Link Storm Prediction Center Feb 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (noaa.gov)
We have a threat of severe thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow morning.
WHEN: The primary timeframe of concern will be 5 pm tonight through 6 am tomorrow morning.
WHAT: Some of the thunderstorms could produce 70 mph wind, large hail, lightning, brief downpours, and even an isolated tornadoes.
IMPACTS: If supercells form, then hail could cause damage to cars and property. High wind gusts could bring down some tree limbs and power lines. Lightning will be a concern for anyone outdoors. I can’t rule out a short-lived tornado. Monitor updates.
If a squall line forms, then you can expect a few reports of gusty wind, small to medium size hail, lightning, and brief downpours. A low risk of a short-lived tornado.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS: A cold front is pushing towards the region. Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the 70s. Temperatures behind the front will drop into the 20s. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this evening and tonight. I am expecting a line of storms to form over Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. The line will move east southeast and pass through the area.
Supercells can’t be ruled out.
UNCERTAINTIES: There will be a very strong CAP/lid on the atmosphere today. That raises questions on storm development. I do believe the cold front will have enough lift with it to break the CAP and storms will form. Whether supercell thunderstorms form is questionable. But, it can’t be ruled out. Especially over Missouri and Illinois.
What is a squall line? It is a solid line or broken line of thunderstorms.
What is a supercell thunderstorm? Supercells tend to be all by themselves. There can be scattered supercells on radar.
Here are some graphics from the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS.
The Storm Prediction Center updated that map at 7 am. Some slight adjustments.
The primary time-frame of concern will be 6 PM to 6 AM. There remain questions about whether supercells will form ahead of the cold front or just a line of storms.
If supercells form, then larger hail will occur. A line of storms would primary mean gusty wind and small hail. Perhaps an isolated tornado risk.
Monitor updates.
The Hrrr model shows development after 7 PM. Future-cast radar. 9 PM. This is what this model believes could happen. A few storms forming.
12 AM Future-cast radar. What radar MIGHT look like. Keep in mind, this is a model. Model’s aren’t perfect.
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