Posted by Chief Meteorologist Beau Dodson
Easter 2024
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A few showers and storms are possible today into Monday morning over mainly our northern counties.
This post, however, is concerning Monday’s event.
** Severe Weather Event Increasingly Likely **
The concern?
Tornadoes, damaging wind, and golf ball size hail.
When?
We are focused on late Monday afternoon into the wee early morning hours of Tuesday.
Where?
See the graphics. There is a risk area-wide.
Certainties
Thunderstorms will occur. Some will become severe.
Uncertainties
There remain questions on the exact placement of the warm front Monday evening and night. The tornado risk will be a tad higher along the warm front. We will need to continue to fine-tune the forecast.
Additional shifts in the Storm Prediction Center outlook are possible. They have been shifting it the last few days farther and farther into our region.
If the warm front ends up farther north, then the higher risk will shift northward (a tad), as well.
There is also a lead shortwave that should produce showers and thunderstorms earlier on Monday across portions of central and northeast Missouri into central Illinois.
If the activity is more widespread than anticipated, then cloud cover could reduce the severe weather threat.
There are several questions about how the severe weather threat unfolds over especially southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
We may not have a handle on that until Monday morning. Thus, monitor updated forecasts. Adjustments in the outlook are certainly possible.
Monitor updates.
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Outdoor sirens can be a source for those outside.
Forecast Discussion.
Unfortunately, the trends are not in our favor.
The risk of severe weather continues to increase Monday afternoon and night. With that said, even today there remain some questions on placement and timing of severe weather.
We are now in a level one, two, and three risk across the region.
I encourage you to not get caught up in the colors. Weather doesn’t always follow our nicely drawn maps and color grids.
A tornado in the level one zone is the same as a tornado in a level three zone. The damage is the same. Thus, let’s not focus on the colors. Focus on the forecast.
The forecast is for severe thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Tornadoes, damaging wind, and large hail will be a concern.
If supercells form, then some of the hail could reach golf ball size or larger.
Supercells tend to be scattered vs a solid line of storms. A solid line of storms would be more likely to produce damaging wind and short-lived tornadoes.
Supercells tend to produce longer tracked tornadoes, higher damaging wind gusts, and larger hail.
Early on, supercells appear possible. Then, a line of storms will form.
The bulk of our region’s tornadoes occur in level one, two, and three risk zones. So, again, don’t get too caught up in the colors.
The Harrisburg EF4 tornadoes, several years ago, was in a level two risk. A slight risk.
Graphic one shows you the Storm Prediction Center’s official severe weather outlook. They will update this later this morning/afternoon. Adjustments are still possible.
That is mainly going to be for Monday afternoon, evening, and night.
Peak timeframe for severe weather could be in the 5 PM to 5 AM time-frame. But, we will need to closely monitor it. I can’t rule out storms occurring earlier.
If storms train over the same area, then some brief flooding concerns could develop. Avoid flooded roadways.
There will be quite a bit of wind shear aloft with this event. Wind shear is the turning of wind with height and the increase in wind speed with height.
This is an ingredient for severe thunderstorms.
Dew points will rise into the 60s. That is plenty of moisture for severe thunderstorms to tap into.
CAPE values (instability) will rise into the 500 to 1500 range Monday afternoon and evening.
All of those are ingredients for severe weather.
Graphic two shows you the tornado threat zone. The hatched area is where a few storms could produce strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater).
Graphic three shows you the damaging wind threat zone.
Graphic four shows you the large hail threat zone.
The Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service made the fifth graphic.
Let’s look at the high resolution Hrrr model. This is what the radar could look like Monday. This is just one models opinion.
The time stamp is in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM.
Make sure you have a family safety plan in the event severe weather develops.
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