Posted by Chief Meteorologist Beau Dodson
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April 6, 2024
Sunday’s Severe Weather Outlook
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Good day, everyone.
The Storm Prediction Center “currently” has us outlined in a level one severe weather risk Sunday afternoon and evening.
The light color is where sub-severe storms could occur. Lightning would be the concern.
The dark color is a level 1 risk. Dark green. That is the lowest risk they have.
The risk table goes from 1 to 5. One being the lowest risk (a marginal risk) Five being the highest risk (a high risk).
They will update this graphic a few more times between now and event time. If they make adjustments, then I will update the graphic below.
Forecast
We will have scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight into tomorrow morning. These initial storms should not be severe.
The severe risk will arrive later in the day.
The concern will be a few supercells forming Sunday afternoon and evening.
Supercells tend to be scattered.
Squall lines are a solid line of storms. Supercells are loners/scattered. This allows them to draw in a bit more energy.
This will likely start out as supercells and then it could develop into more of a line of storms. That portion of the forecast will need to be monitored. You can see that idea below.
Here is the Hrrr future-cast radars. What radar might look like tomorrow. This is in Zulu time. 00z=7 pm. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM.
The primary concern will be a few reports of damaging wind and hail. A secondary concern will be a tornado or two.
Dew points, moisture in the atmosphere, is marginal for this event. If dew points were higher, then I would be a bit more concerned.
I will be monitoring dew points to see if they are a few degrees higher than forecast.
The time-frame of severe weather concern will primarily be 12 pm through 8 pm. Afternoon/evening.
Stay weather aware.
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