Posted by Chief Meteorologist Beau Dodson
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Good day, everyone.
A very active weather pattern ahead of us.
Forecast
Today and tonight:
A cold front will push into the region later today and this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the cold front. We do have a chance of severe weather.
The SPC has placed us in a level one severe weather risk. The dark green zone.
There are some limiting factors that raise questions about the severe weather risk this afternoon and evening.
Dew point recover is one question. Dew point is a measure of moisture. We generally look for dew points of 58 degrees and above when thinking about severe weather.
Here are the early morning dew point readings.
If we zoom out, we can see higher dew points to our south.
Here is the dew point animation. You can see the front pulls higher dew points northward later today.
Double click on images to enlarge them.
If dew points recover later today, then the risk of severe weather will be an issue.
There is also some dry air aloft moving in from the west. This raises questions about the threat of severe weather, as well.
Overall, confidence is lower than average for this severe weather event. The concern would be a few reports of damaging wind, large hail, and a tornado or two.
Stay weather aware this afternoon and evening as thunderstorms develop and move through the region.
We will dry out later tonight into most of Monday.
High cirrus clouds continue to be a concern for the eclipse, but low clouds appear unlikely. It is possible the cirrus clouds cause some viewing issues, but that is better than low clouds.
Some patchy cumulus clouds will form during the afternoon, as well.
I hope everyone is able to view the eclipse. Get into the totality area. There is nothing like it! It is amazing.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast late Monday night into Thursday.
Locally heavy rain is a concern with some flash flood or flood warnings possible as we move through the week.
The latest WPC/NOAA rainfall totals continue to show heavy rain.
The Memphis, Tennessee National Weather Service posted this graphic. Some big totals are showing up in some of the model data.
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