Posted by Meteorologist Beau Dodson
Hurricane Francine continues to move through the Gulf of Mexico. This system will move ashore in Louisiana tomorrow. Some additional strengthening is likely.
The system will bring widespread rain to our region. The rain will arrive Thursday morning and afternoon. There are timing differences in model guidance. The bulk of the model guidance bring rain into the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee late Thursday morning into the mid-afternoon hours. Then, that rain will move northward.
Here is the NAM model. It shows rain arriving during the mid-morning hours. This will all be moving northward.
The Hrrr model holds the rain off until the afternoon hours.
I expect rainfall totals of one to three inches. Locally higher. Here is a graphic the Paducah, Kentucky NWS posted.
Here is a graphic from the Memphis, Tennessee NWS.
We are in drought. A lot of this rain will soak into the ground. Where the rain falls heavy enough, there could be some local water issues. Water over roadways and in ditches. Widespread flooding is not anticipated. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
I continue to monitor the tornado risk. It does appear low, but perhaps not zero.
Rain showers will linger into Saturday and Sunday. Mostly east of the Mississippi River.
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