Posted by Meteorologist Beau Dodson
Welcome to autumn!
I am monitoring the Gulf of Mexico for the development of a tropical system.
The chances of a tropical storm forming are high.
The National Hurricane Center has a 70% chance for development over the next few days.
It remains too early to determine the strength and track of this system. Since it hasn’t formed yet, all we have to go by is model guidance.
There are some general themes in the guidance. That theme is to track it towards Alabama and Florida.
This graphic shows you the probability of its eventual track. You will also notice the left curve as the system pulls northward.
I am watching for the development of an upper-level low-pressure center over our region mid to late week. If that does develop, then it could pull moisture north-northwest into our region. That would enhance rainfall totals.
Stay tuned.
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