Posted by Meteorologist Beau Dodson
Tuesday, November 21, 2023. Posted at 4:30 AM
Good day, everyone! Rain is pushing out of the region. Clouds will linger today. We will also have gusty west northwest winds. High temperatures will likely occur this morning, and then temperatures will fall.
Highs will top out in the 50s before falling into the 40s.
The Hrrr model guidance shows this quite well. Time-stamp upper left. Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM.
Clouds will linger into tonight and tomorrow. There remain some questions about how fast clouds will exit Wednesday. If clouds linger, then it will feel cooler.
Here is the Hrrr model cloud cover forecast. Blue represents clouds.
I do not have any travel or weather concerns Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, or Saturday.
A few light rain showers, perhaps mixed with sleet, will develop Saturday night into Sunday. At this time, I do not have any travel impacts from this event. Temperatures should remain above freezing.
Some data shows below freezing temperatures across our northwestern counties. For now, I discounted this as being too cold in the model data.
I am watching a fast-moving clipper system towards the middle of next week. Some models show this bringing snow showers to our local area. For now, I am simply watching trends in the guidance. It is too early to forecast snow.
I will keep an eye on it.
The GFS model shows snow showers Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Snow is represented by the blue color.
With that said, there is quite a bit of model support for colder temperatures next Tuesday or Wednesday.
The GFS shows widespread 20s next Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Nothing crazy, but colder than it is now.
I am not tracking any significant snow or ice storm threats. Not yet, at least!
Everyone keeps asking me when it is going to snow. I know there were a lot of people saying it would snow for Thanksgiving. They were posting long range snow maps. I always caution people to ignore these types of posts. They are click bate and often times posted by non-meteorologists.
Models do not handle snow all that well. This is especially true in the long range. I don’t trust models past a few days. Especially with snow.
We struggle to forecast snow 24 to 48 hours in advance. Let alone five, six, seven, and eight days in advance!
Keep checking back.
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! I hope you and your family have a great week.
